The International Energy Agency has raised its outlook for global oil demand growth this year, citing a stronger economic backdrop and lower crude prices, but warned that supply is still set to run ahead of consumption, the Wall Street Journal writes.
The agency now expects demand to grow by 930,000 barrels a day, up from its prior forecast, even as global supply growth was revised higher to 2.5 million barrels a day.
Recent production declines have narrowed the surplus that built up in 2025, but the IEA cautions that seasonal refinery maintenance could soon pressure demand and allow excess supply to reemerge. OPEC+ has paused output hikes for the first quarter, yet both the alliance and non-OPEC producers are expected to add significant barrels later this year.
Inventories remain elevated, buoyed by rising volumes held onshore and at sea, much of it linked to sanctioned producers. With geopolitical risks, trade tensions and uneven regional output trends in play, the report underscores a fragile balance in global oil markets at the beginning of the year’s first quarter.
