The oil market is slipping into its first major glut since 2020, Bloomberg writes.
The International Energy Agency is now projecting supply will exceed demand by 2.4 million barrels a day this year—and nearly double that in 2026. Prices are sliding as OPEC+ unwinds cuts, U.S. and Latin American output rises, and global demand softens under trade tensions and China’s economic slowdown.
The imbalance is reshaping winners and losers. Large importers like India and China gain breathing room, while refiners enjoy fatter margins and traders who bet on a downturn see their bearish calls validated.
Cheaper crude also gives the U.S. a chance to refill its depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve, though Congress has capped how much can be bought. For producers—and Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda—prolonged low prices could prove far more challenging.
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