U.S. oil production is expected to dip slightly in 2026, but deepwater projects in the Gulf are helping cushion the decline, Bloomberg reports.
Long in the shadow of the shale boom, the Gulf is staging a resurgence, with 300,000 new barrels per day expected this year and another 250,000 in 2026, according to Wood Mackenzie. Big players like Chevron, Shell and BP are reviving old platforms and deploying streamlined, lower-cost infrastructure to bring down breakeven prices, some below $20 per barrel. Chevron’s Ballymore project, for example, began pumping 75,000 barrels a day in April without building a new platform.
This offshore revival comes as onshore producers scale back amid weak crude prices and OPEC+ competition. While the Gulf still faces challenges—including a lack of recent discoveries—companies are betting on innovation and cost discipline to keep output steady.
BP, Chevron and Shell say the region now plays a central role in their long-term strategies thanks to its efficiency, reliability and cost advantages.
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